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Nov. 8th, 2022
The proposals by the English Boundary Commission for Sunderland (and Tyne and Wear generally) are actually not too bad - unlike a previous draft where they had Sunderland split across 6 different seats. I feel the Washington seat goes rather too far inland, but the poor Commissioners have got to get enough people in to make quota from SOMEWHERE.
I am actually fairly kind to the Boundary Commissioners, since the rules they work under are more proscriptive these days, and they inevitably end up with "fixing X here breaks Y over there." Unlike, say, a certain friend of mine, who is quite prepared to tell the Northern Ireland Boundary Commissioners that they have "misdirected themselves." Both on a blog post and in an official comment.
Still waiting for the NI Boundary Commissioners to be told one day that they have 17½ seats to allocate, and they end up having to do a deal with their Scottish counterparts to create "Giant's Causeway Central."
In Hawaiian district re-apportionment jargon, this is known as a "canoe seat." Yes, Hawaiian district re-apportionment jargon *is* a thing, even if it's not as widely known as Thieves' Can't, or Polari..
I am actually fairly kind to the Boundary Commissioners, since the rules they work under are more proscriptive these days, and they inevitably end up with "fixing X here breaks Y over there." Unlike, say, a certain friend of mine, who is quite prepared to tell the Northern Ireland Boundary Commissioners that they have "misdirected themselves." Both on a blog post and in an official comment.
Still waiting for the NI Boundary Commissioners to be told one day that they have 17½ seats to allocate, and they end up having to do a deal with their Scottish counterparts to create "Giant's Causeway Central."
In Hawaiian district re-apportionment jargon, this is known as a "canoe seat." Yes, Hawaiian district re-apportionment jargon *is* a thing, even if it's not as widely known as Thieves' Can't, or Polari..
2022 US Mid-term Elections
Nov. 8th, 2022 04:41 pmTues 16:41 Zulu Time: BBC News said a 5 am EST start for poll workers on the East Coast (10 am Greenwich Mean Time), which seems a bit early. Unless you're one of those NH villages that open the polls at 12:00 am, then close them at 12:05 am once all dozen voters have voted, or something.
Tues 19:14 Zulu Time: FiveThirtyEight website’s final forecast is that the Republicans have an 84% chance of controlling the House, and a 59% chance of taking the Senate. This is their “deluxe” forecast, that includes human input from their pollster wonks. The equivalent “polls only” forecasts are House 75% Rep, Senate 51% Rep.
Tues 19:15 Zulu Time: 538 also reckon that re-districting won’t be a major issue in the House, as both sides have been almost as good/bad as each other in keeping the spirit of Gov. Elbridge Gerry alive. (The Senate is, of course, (almost) immune from gerrymandering, if you think about it.)
Tues 19:14 Zulu Time: FiveThirtyEight website’s final forecast is that the Republicans have an 84% chance of controlling the House, and a 59% chance of taking the Senate. This is their “deluxe” forecast, that includes human input from their pollster wonks. The equivalent “polls only” forecasts are House 75% Rep, Senate 51% Rep.
Tues 19:15 Zulu Time: 538 also reckon that re-districting won’t be a major issue in the House, as both sides have been almost as good/bad as each other in keeping the spirit of Gov. Elbridge Gerry alive. (The Senate is, of course, (almost) immune from gerrymandering, if you think about it.)